RESEARCH

Dissertation

Do fluctuations in climate spur violence? Across a variety of stakeholders, there is an intuitive expectation that climate factors influence conflict in vulnerable areas. While existing research suggests that there might be a relationship between climate and conflict, the exact linkage between the two remains an open question. To address this gap, my dissertation develops a theoretical framework for climate and conflict which focuses on how individuals react to the uncertainty created by climate volatility. I argue that climate volatility heightens feelings of uncertainty among farmers; discomfort with feelings of uncertainty pushes individuals to try and seek certainty in a variety of ways. One way to find certainty, although not the only one, is to align with social groups that can offer psycho-social and economic benefits to membership. Armed groups are just one example, and the pertinent example for this project, of social groups that benefit from this certainty seeking behavior. I argue that a key outcome of individual efforts to reduce uncertainty is a larger pool of potential supporters and recruits for armed groups, leading to more violent events over time.